Die Analysten hatten jüngst den Gewinn je Aktie von Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) von 0,74$ auf 0,75$ erhöht. Bedeutet dies, dass die Aktie nun die Hochs vom Januar bei 39,43$ erneut testen wird?
Insgesamt scheint die Balance von Angebot und Nachfrage anzudeuten, dass dies nicht geschehen wird.
Pfizer ist ein 'Diamant im Himmel' der davor steht herunterzufallen.
The price has been developing a diamond top formation. It is rare as it is a profitable pattern, upon the successful downside breakout. The right side of the top is dotted to indicate it is presumptive, assuming the pattern will continue to form and that the former February 28, $37.28 peak will maintain resistance.
This pattern is made up of two smaller ones. On the left side, it started mid-September to develop a Broadening Pattern; on the right side, it began forming what may be a triangle.
Das Muster könnte als komplexes Kopf-und-Schulter Muster mit einer V-förmigen Ausschnittslinie beschrieben werden.
Thomas Bulkowski is an investor and author. His research shows that 58 percent of the time the last rally before the Diamond Top is steep. Between August 21 and September 12, which is less than a three week period, the price surged by more than 10 percent. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index climbed 3.1 percent. An advance three times that of the benchmark more than satisfies the requirement for a steep rise.
When this occurs his research shows that the odds increase that the breakout from the diamond will be downward and will be equally as steep. That means that should the price fall below $36, it should almost automatically fall quickly to the beginning of the last move on August 21 at $32.32.
Pullbacks occur about 54 percent of the time. When they occur, they do tend to detract from performance, in terms of optimum entry. An entry upon breakout with a stop-loss above the pattern should eliminate performance weakness.
84 percent of downside breakouts provide a minimum of a 10 percent gain. The 10 percent failure percentage is 16 percent, below the average for most tops complete with a downside breakout. These numbers render the diamond pattern with an above-average chance of being profitable with minimum risk.
Die 200 Tagelinie erhöht die Beweiskraft des Musters, da sie dessen Boden 'schützt'.
Handelsstrategien - Short Position
Konservative Anleger sollten auf einen 3 prozentigen Ausbruch nach unten und einen wahrscheinlichen Rückschlag, der den Widerstand des Muster demonstrieren würde, mit zumindest einer roten Kerze, die eine grüne vollständig umfasst.
Moderate Anleger würden sich mit einem 2 prozentigen Ausbruch zufriedengeben und könnten eine Rückbewegung für einen besseren Einstiegskurs abwarten.
Aggressive traders may enter a short position immediately, counting on the dual resistance of the former February 28, $37.28 peak. The dotted downtrend line from the January 30 diamond top is presumptive, in case the previous peak would maintain resistance.